Quantifying the economic impact of a major programme
Gross & net
Impact estimated
Green Book
Appraisal standard
Audit-ready
Evidence documentation
The challenge
A public body needed a credible, independent assessment of the economic impact of a major programme — one that would satisfy oversight scrutiny and distinguish genuine additional impact from activity that would have occurred regardless.
Our approach
- Specified a robust counterfactual to isolate genuinely additional economic activity from deadweight.
- Estimated gross and net effects across output, employment and productivity, with displacement and leakage accounted for.
- Applied recognised appraisal multipliers consistent with HM Treasury Green Book guidance.
- Reported the results with explicit uncertainty ranges and clearly stated assumptions.
The outcome
The body received a defensible, transparent estimate of net economic impact that withstood audit scrutiny and strengthened the evidence base for continued investment.
Economic ConsultingImpact AssessmentQuantitative Research
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We work with a limited number of organisations at any one time. If you are weighing a decision that would benefit from independent analysis, we would welcome an early, confidential conversation.